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League Two | 1st Leg
May 10, 2025 at 8pm UK
Meadow Lane Stadium
AW

Notts County
0 - 1
AFC Wimbledon


Macarai (65'), Jones (90+5')
Jatta (90+5')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Harbottle (59')
Hippolyte (43'), Neufville (64'), Tilley (76'), Bugiel (84')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Notts County 1-2 Doncaster
Saturday, May 3 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Grimsby Town 0-1 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, May 3 at 3pm in League Two

We said: Notts County 1-1 AFC Wimbledon

Both Notts and Wimbledon ended the season in similarly poor form, and considering that they were only separated by a single point after 46 matches, expect to see a close game this weekend. However, given that each team won their home fixture against the other during 2024-25's League Two campaign, the Dons would do well to walk away with the score level after the first leg. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Notts County win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for AFC Wimbledon had a probability of 30% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Notts County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.81%). The likeliest AFC Wimbledon win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood.

Result
Notts CountyDrawAFC Wimbledon
43.92% (2.693 2.69) 26.08% (-0.297 -0.3) 30% (-2.39 -2.39)
Both teams to score 52.18% (-0.064 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
47.99% (0.381 0.38)52.01% (-0.375 -0.38)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.26% (0.328 0.33)73.75% (-0.322 -0.32)
Notts County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.44% (1.518 1.52)23.56% (-1.512 -1.51)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.38% (2.143 2.14)57.62% (-2.137 -2.14)
AFC Wimbledon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.27% (-1.465 -1.46)31.74% (1.471 1.47)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.84% (-1.718 -1.72)68.16% (1.725 1.73)
Score Analysis
    Notts County 43.91%
    AFC Wimbledon 30%
    Draw 26.08%
Notts CountyDrawAFC Wimbledon
1-0 @ 10.8% (0.31 0.31)
2-1 @ 8.97% (0.289 0.29)
2-0 @ 7.81% (0.551 0.55)
3-1 @ 4.32% (0.319 0.32)
3-0 @ 3.77% (0.417 0.42)
3-2 @ 2.48% (0.089 0.09)
4-1 @ 1.56% (0.178 0.18)
4-0 @ 1.36% (0.203 0.2)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 43.91%
1-1 @ 12.4% (-0.14 -0.14)
0-0 @ 7.48% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-2 @ 5.15% (-0.04 -0.04)
3-3 @ 0.95% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 26.08%
0-1 @ 8.58% (-0.488 -0.49)
1-2 @ 7.12% (-0.379 -0.38)
0-2 @ 4.93% (-0.495 -0.5)
1-3 @ 2.72% (-0.263 -0.26)
2-3 @ 1.97% (-0.097 -0.1)
0-3 @ 1.88% (-0.275 -0.28)
Other @ 2.8%
Total : 30%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Notts County 1-2 Doncaster
Saturday, May 3 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Harrogate 1-3 Notts County
Saturday, April 26 at 1pm in League Two
Last Game: Notts County 1-2 Cheltenham
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Bradford 1-1 Notts County
Thursday, April 17 at 8pm in League Two
Last Game: Notts County 1-3 Salford City
Friday, April 11 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Colchester 1-0 Notts County
Saturday, April 5 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Grimsby Town 0-1 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, May 3 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-2 Port Vale
Saturday, April 26 at 12.30pm in League Two
Last Game: Gillingham 1-0 AFC Wimbledon
Monday, April 21 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 0-0 Chesterfield
Friday, April 18 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Doncaster 1-1 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, April 12 at 12.30pm in League Two
Last Game: AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Harrogate
Saturday, April 5 at 3pm in League Two


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