Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 40.34%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 30.84% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Newport County win was 0-1 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Sutton United in this match.
