Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sutton United win with a probability of 36.19%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.74% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sutton United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.75%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (11.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sutton United would win this match.
-0.15) 
0.17) 
