SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 42.35%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 34.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.99%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 1-2 (7.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.46%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Aston Villa |
42.35% ( 0.04) | 23.39% ( 0) | 34.26% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 63.23% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.64% ( -0.02) | 38.36% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.36% ( -0.02) | 60.65% ( 0.02) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.47% ( 0.01) | 18.53% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.23% ( 0.02) | 49.77% ( -0.02) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.61% ( -0.03) | 22.39% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.1% ( -0.05) | 55.9% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-1 @ 8.82% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.96% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.71% 3-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.09% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.56% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 3.61% Total : 42.35% | 1-1 @ 10.46% 2-2 @ 6.6% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.15% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.85% ( -0)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.39% | 1-2 @ 7.83% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.21% 0-2 @ 4.65% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.91% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.29% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.32% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.46% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 3.36% Total : 34.26% |
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