SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 62.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.7% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 16.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.76%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (4.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Burnley |
62.67% ( 0.35) | 20.66% ( 0.09) | 16.66% ( -0.44) |
| Both teams to score 53.11% ( -1.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.22% ( -1.19) | 42.77% ( 1.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.82% ( -1.19) | 65.18% ( 1.19) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.94% ( -0.27) | 13.05% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.36% ( -0.55) | 39.63% ( 0.54) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.08% ( -1.24) | 38.92% ( 1.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.35% ( -1.19) | 75.65% ( 1.19) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Burnley |
| 2-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.34) 1-0 @ 10.34% ( 0.43)2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 6.75% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 3.64% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 3.43% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 3.18% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 1.62% ( -0.09)5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.21% Total : 62.67% | 1-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 5.08% ( 0.26)2-2 @ 4.69% ( -0.17)3-3 @ 1% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.66% | 0-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.08% Total : 16.66% |
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