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Premier League | Gameweek 38
May 23, 2021 at 4pm UK
Villa Park
CL

Aston Villa
2 - 1
Chelsea

Traore (43'), El Ghazi (52' pen.)
McGinn (65'), Nakamba (74'), Martinez (81')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Chilwell (70')
Jorginho (45'), Werner (45+2'), Kovacic (49'), Arrizabalaga (90+5')
Azpilicueta (89')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 55.72%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 22.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.48%) and 0-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (5.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.

Result
Aston VillaDrawChelsea
22.5%21.79%55.72%
Both teams to score 59.52%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
60.84%39.16%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
38.52%61.49%
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.2%30.81%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.92%67.08%
Chelsea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.02%13.98%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.51%41.49%
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 22.5%
    Chelsea 55.72%
    Draw 21.79%
Aston VillaDrawChelsea
2-1 @ 5.88%
1-0 @ 5.07%
2-0 @ 2.99%
3-1 @ 2.31%
3-2 @ 2.27%
3-0 @ 1.17%
Other @ 2.82%
Total : 22.5%
1-1 @ 9.98%
2-2 @ 5.78%
0-0 @ 4.31%
3-3 @ 1.49%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 21.79%
1-2 @ 9.82%
0-1 @ 8.48%
0-2 @ 8.34%
1-3 @ 6.44%
0-3 @ 5.47%
2-3 @ 3.79%
1-4 @ 3.17%
0-4 @ 2.69%
2-4 @ 1.86%
1-5 @ 1.25%
0-5 @ 1.06%
Other @ 3.37%
Total : 55.72%

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