Athletic rarely slip up at home, and after an impressive result against Roma, they could be very competitive in the Europa League this season.
AZ made an excellent start claiming three points on home soil last midweek, but Elfsborg gave them plenty of trouble and they were beaten by Utrecht at the weekend, making them big underdogs here.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 43.49%. A win for Athletic Bilbao had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.92%) and 0-2 (7.74%). The likeliest Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match.
-0.55) 
0.86) 
