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Copa Libertadores | Round of 16 | 2nd Leg
Jul 21, 2021 at 11.15pm UK
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Barcelona
3 - 1
Velez Sarsfield

Stalin Preciado Quintero (24'), Cortez (69' pen.), Perlaza (80')
Pinatares (35'), Cortez (78')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Martin Lucero (48')
Mancuello (32'), Brizuela (32'), de los Santos (51'), Janson (66'), Caseres (78'), Tarragona (90+3')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona SC win with a probability of 40.58%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 36.5% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona SC win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.18%) and 2-0 (5.28%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-2 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barcelona SC would win this match.

Result
Barcelona SCDrawVelez Sarsfield
40.58%22.92%36.5%
Both teams to score 65.54%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.46%35.54%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.41%57.59%
Barcelona SC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.89%18.11%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.94%49.06%
Velez Sarsfield Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.04%19.96%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.88%52.12%
Score Analysis
    Barcelona SC 40.58%
    Velez Sarsfield 36.5%
    Draw 22.92%
Barcelona SCDrawVelez Sarsfield
2-1 @ 8.5%
1-0 @ 6.18%
2-0 @ 5.28%
3-1 @ 4.84%
3-2 @ 3.9%
3-0 @ 3.01%
4-1 @ 2.07%
4-2 @ 1.67%
4-0 @ 1.28%
Other @ 3.85%
Total : 40.58%
1-1 @ 9.95%
2-2 @ 6.85%
0-0 @ 3.62%
3-3 @ 2.1%
Other @ 0.4%
Total : 22.92%
1-2 @ 8.02%
0-1 @ 5.83%
0-2 @ 4.69%
1-3 @ 4.31%
2-3 @ 3.68%
0-3 @ 2.52%
1-4 @ 1.74%
2-4 @ 1.48%
0-4 @ 1.02%
Other @ 3.22%
Total : 36.5%

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