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Champions League | Semi-Finals | 1st Leg
Apr 30, 2024 at 8pm UK
Allianz Arena
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Bayern
2 - 2
Real Madrid

Sane (50'), Kane (62' pen.)
Mazraoui (46'), Min-jae (72')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Junior (29', 89' pen.)
Kroos (67'), Vazquez (85+1')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 53.12%. A win for Real Madrid had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 21.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Real Madrid win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.79%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood.

Result
Bayern MunichDrawReal Madrid
53.12% (-0.116 -0.12) 21.9% (0.040000000000003 0.04) 24.98% (0.079000000000001 0.08)
Both teams to score 62.26% (-0.054000000000002 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.07% (-0.107 -0.11)36.93% (0.111 0.11)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
40.89% (-0.116 -0.12)59.11% (0.119 0.12)
Bayern Munich Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.96% (-0.073999999999998 -0.07)14.05% (0.077 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.39% (-0.146 -0.15)41.61% (0.14899999999999 0.15)
Real Madrid Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.43% (0.0010000000000048 0)27.57%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
36.91% (0.0020000000000024 0)63.09% (0.00099999999999767 0)
Score Analysis
    Bayern Munich 53.12%
    Real Madrid 24.98%
    Draw 21.9%
Bayern MunichDrawReal Madrid
2-1 @ 9.61% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
1-0 @ 7.6% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 7.46% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
3-1 @ 6.29% (-0.017 -0.02)
3-0 @ 4.88% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 4.05% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.09% (-0.017 -0.02)
4-0 @ 2.4% (-0.013 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.99% (-0.011 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.21% (-0.01 -0.01)
5-0 @ 0.94% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.6%
Total : 53.12%
1-1 @ 9.79% (0.026 0.03)
2-2 @ 6.19% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
0-0 @ 3.87% (0.021 0.02)
3-3 @ 1.74% (-0.0050000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.31%
Total : 21.9%
1-2 @ 6.31% (0.016 0.02)
0-1 @ 4.99% (0.027 0.03)
0-2 @ 3.21% (0.017 0.02)
1-3 @ 2.71% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.66%
0-3 @ 1.38% (0.0069999999999999 0.01)
Other @ 3.72%
Total : 24.98%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Bayern 2-1 Frankfurt
Saturday, April 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Union Berlin 1-5 Bayern
Saturday, April 20 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Bayern 1-0 Arsenal
Wednesday, April 17 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Bayern 2-0 FC Koln
Saturday, April 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Arsenal 2-2 Bayern
Tuesday, April 9 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Heidenheim 3-2 Bayern
Saturday, April 6 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Real Sociedad 0-1 Real Madrid
Friday, April 26 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-2 Barcelona
Sunday, April 21 at 8pm in La Liga
Last Game: Man City 1-1 Real Madrid (3-4 pen.)
Wednesday, April 17 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Mallorca 0-1 Real Madrid
Saturday, April 13 at 5.30pm in La Liga
Last Game: Real Madrid 3-3 Man City
Tuesday, April 9 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Real Madrid 2-0 Athletic Bilbao
Sunday, March 31 at 8pm in La Liga


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