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CL
EFL Cup | Third Round
Sep 22, 2021 at 7.45pm UK
Stamford Bridge
AV

Chelsea
1 - 1
Aston Villa

Chelsea win 4-3 on penalties
Werner (54')
Sarr (31'), James (90+2')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Archer (64')
Young (86')

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 54.63%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 21.87%.

The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.15%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (6.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.

Result
ChelseaDrawAston Villa
54.63%23.49%21.87%
Both teams to score 52.92%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.5%47.5%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.29%69.71%
Chelsea Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.73%17.27%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
52.4%47.59%
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.96%36.04%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
27.18%72.82%
Score Analysis
    Chelsea 54.62%
    Aston Villa 21.87%
    Draw 23.49%
ChelseaDrawAston Villa
1-0 @ 10.92%
2-1 @ 9.8%
2-0 @ 9.6%
3-1 @ 5.74%
3-0 @ 5.62%
3-2 @ 2.93%
4-1 @ 2.52%
4-0 @ 2.47%
4-2 @ 1.29%
Other @ 3.76%
Total : 54.62%
1-1 @ 11.15%
0-0 @ 6.22%
2-2 @ 5%
3-3 @ 1%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 23.49%
0-1 @ 6.35%
1-2 @ 5.69%
0-2 @ 3.24%
1-3 @ 1.94%
2-3 @ 1.7%
0-3 @ 1.1%
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 21.87%

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