Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 43.51%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 29.53% and a draw had a probability of 27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.75%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.
0.73) 
-0.8) 
