SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colombia win with a probability of 55.29%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Chile had a probability of 18.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colombia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.72%) and 2-1 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (7.75%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Colombia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Colombia | Draw | Chile |
55.29% ( -0.12) | 25.85% ( 0.12) | 18.86% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 42.03% ( -0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.3% ( -0.39) | 59.69% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.99% ( -0.3) | 80% ( 0.3) |
| Colombia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.27% ( -0.21) | 21.73% ( 0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.1% ( -0.32) | 54.9% ( 0.32) |
| Chile Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.7% ( -0.24) | 46.3% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.05% ( -0.19) | 81.95% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Colombia | Draw | Chile |
| 1-0 @ 15.35% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 11.72% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.03% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 5.96% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.28% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 1.77% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.83% Total : 55.28% | 1-1 @ 11.82% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 10.06% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.49% Total : 25.85% | 0-1 @ 7.75% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 4.55% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 2.98% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.4% Total : 18.86% |
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