SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Flamengo win with a probability of 71.24%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 10.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Flamengo win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.45%) and 3-0 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.62%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (3.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Flamengo | Draw | Penarol |
71.24% ( -1.76) | 18.19% ( 0.96) | 10.57% ( 0.79) |
| Both teams to score 44.2% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.33% ( -1.97) | 45.66% ( 1.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.01% ( -1.9) | 67.99% ( 1.89) |
| Flamengo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.49% ( -1) | 11.51% ( 1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.61% ( -2.21) | 36.39% ( 2.2) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.95% ( 0.3) | 50.05% ( -0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.3% ( 0.21) | 84.69% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Flamengo | Draw | Penarol |
| 2-0 @ 13.46% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 12.45% ( 0.53)3-0 @ 9.7% ( -0.38)2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.72% ( -0.2)4-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.44)4-1 @ 3.63% ( -0.27)3-2 @ 2.32% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 2.27% ( -0.29)5-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.19)4-2 @ 1.26% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.29% Total : 71.23% | 1-1 @ 8.62% ( 0.44) 0-0 @ 5.76% ( 0.47)2-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.59% Total : 18.19% | 0-1 @ 3.99% ( 0.36) 1-2 @ 2.98% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.22% Total : 10.57% |
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