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IN
Nations League | League A
Oct 14, 2020 at 7.45pm UK
Stadio Giuseppe Meazza
NN

Italy
1 - 1
Netherlands

Pellegrini (16')
Verratti (23'), D'Ambrosio (80'), Kean (90+3')
FT(HT: 1-1)

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 45.16%. A win for Netherlands had a probability of 31.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Netherlands win was 1-2 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.

Result
ItalyDrawNetherlands
45.16%23.81%31.02%
Both teams to score 60.33%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.4%41.6%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36%64%
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.33%18.67%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50%50%
Netherlands Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.17%25.82%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.21%60.79%
Score Analysis
    Italy 45.16%
    Netherlands 31.02%
    Draw 23.81%
ItalyDrawNetherlands
2-1 @ 9.19%
1-0 @ 8.09%
2-0 @ 6.79%
3-1 @ 5.14%
3-0 @ 3.8%
3-2 @ 3.48%
4-1 @ 2.16%
4-0 @ 1.59%
4-2 @ 1.46%
Other @ 3.46%
Total : 45.16%
1-1 @ 10.95%
2-2 @ 6.22%
0-0 @ 4.82%
3-3 @ 1.57%
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.81%
1-2 @ 7.42%
0-1 @ 6.53%
0-2 @ 4.42%
1-3 @ 3.35%
2-3 @ 2.81%
0-3 @ 1.99%
1-4 @ 1.13%
2-4 @ 0.95%
Other @ 2.43%
Total : 31.02%


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