Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 60.13%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Wales had a probability of 14.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.66%) and 2-1 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (11.13%), while for a Wales win it was 0-1 (7%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 17.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Italy in this match.
