SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lithuania win with a probability of 45.5%. A win for Latvia had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.13%) and 0-2 (8.11%). The likeliest Latvia win was 1-0 (8.26%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.27%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lithuania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Latvia | Draw | Lithuania |
28.68% ( -4.82) | 25.81% ( -0.48) | 45.5% ( 5.3) |
| Both teams to score 52.27% ( -0.58) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.45% ( 0.21) | 51.55% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.66% ( 0.19) | 73.34% ( -0.19) |
| Latvia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.54% ( -3.23) | 32.46% ( 3.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.02% ( -3.81) | 68.98% ( 3.81) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.39% ( 2.72) | 22.61% ( -2.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.77% ( 3.89) | 56.23% ( -3.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| Latvia | Draw | Lithuania |
| 1-0 @ 8.26% ( -0.85) 2-1 @ 6.91% ( -0.78)2-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.96)3-1 @ 2.59% ( -0.56)3-2 @ 1.93% ( -0.24)3-0 @ 1.74% ( -0.56)Other @ 2.62% Total : 28.68% | 1-1 @ 12.27% ( -0.23) 0-0 @ 7.34% ( -0.06)2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.75) 1-2 @ 9.13% ( 0.54)0-2 @ 8.11% ( 1.13)1-3 @ 4.52% ( 0.59)0-3 @ 4.02% ( 0.83)2-3 @ 2.55% ( 0.13)1-4 @ 1.68% ( 0.33)0-4 @ 1.49% ( 0.4)2-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.14% Total : 45.5% |
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