This game is a close one to call. The home side are struggling to find the back of the net on their turf, while Empoli just ended a four-game run without scoring before last weekend's win over Torino.
However, the away side's penchant for netting late goals means they always carry a threat, and Nicola's men should nick maximum points against a team that go into this weekend on the back of firing six blanks in eight league gameweeks.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lecce win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lecce win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.36%). The likeliest Empoli win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lecce in this match.
0.38) 
-0.47) 
