SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 56.5%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 1-0 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.47%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.19%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 0-1 (6.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
56.5% ( 0.47) | 23.53% ( -0.22) | 19.96% ( -0.25) |
| Both teams to score 50.01% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.03% ( 0.56) | 49.97% ( -0.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.05% ( 0.5) | 71.95% ( -0.5) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.51% ( 0.38) | 17.49% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.02% ( 0.66) | 47.98% ( -0.65) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.61% ( 0.05) | 39.38% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.92% ( 0.05) | 76.08% ( -0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lille | Draw | Sturm Graz |
| 1-0 @ 12% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 10.47% ( 0.03)2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.09% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.67% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.65% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.47% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.15% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.67% Total : 56.5% | 1-1 @ 11.19% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.89% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 4.55% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.91% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 6.42% ( -0.14) 1-2 @ 5.21% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 2.99% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.41% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.38% Total : 19.96% |
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