SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Burnley had a probability of 31.16% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.4%) and 2-0 (6.89%). The likeliest Burnley win was 1-2 (7.45%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Burnley would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Burnley |
44.72% ( 0.63) | 24.12% ( 0.02) | 31.16% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 59.32% ( -0.39) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.04% ( -0.37) | 42.95% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.64% ( -0.37) | 65.35% ( 0.37) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.6% ( 0.12) | 19.4% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.79% ( 0.19) | 51.21% ( -0.19) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.6% ( -0.59) | 26.4% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.44% ( -0.79) | 61.56% ( 0.79) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Burnley |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 6.89% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 3.18% Total : 44.72% | 1-1 @ 11.18% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.06)0-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.11% | 1-2 @ 7.45% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 6.82% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.54% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 3.31% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.02% ( -0.07)1-4 @ 1.1% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 0.9% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.31% Total : 31.16% |
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