SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 80.01%. A draw had a probability of 13.2% and a win for Sparta Prague had a probability of 6.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.29%) and 1-0 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.26%), while for a Sparta Prague win it was 0-1 (2.33%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Sparta Prague |
80.01% ( 0.44) | 13.18% ( -0.16) | 6.81% ( -0.28) |
| Both teams to score 45.4% ( -1.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.19% ( -0.42) | 34.81% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.22% ( -0.47) | 56.78% ( 0.47) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.21% ( 0) | 6.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 74.94% ( -0) | 25.06% ( 0) |
| Sparta Prague Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.71% ( -1.08) | 51.29% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.47% ( -0.73) | 85.53% ( 0.73) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Sparta Prague |
| 2-0 @ 12.59% ( 0.26) 3-0 @ 11.29% ( 0.24)1-0 @ 9.37% ( 0.2)2-1 @ 8.41% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.16)3-1 @ 7.54% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 5.07% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.09)5-1 @ 2.73% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.11)6-0 @ 1.83% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.07)6-1 @ 1.22% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 0.91% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.15% Total : 80% | 1-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 3.48% ( 0.07)2-2 @ 2.81% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.63% Total : 13.18% | 0-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.09)Other @ 2.4% Total : 6.81% |
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