Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melgar win with a probability of 43.89%. A win for Aucas had a probability of 32.39% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melgar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.69%) and 2-0 (6.43%). The likeliest Aucas win was 1-2 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melgar would win this match.
