Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 41.54%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (7.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
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