Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 48.35%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 26.34% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.37%) and 2-0 (8.68%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood.

Result
Nacional	Draw	Penarol
48.35%	25.32%	26.34%

Both teams to score 52.07%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.02%

50.98%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.15%

72.84%

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.9%

21.1%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

46.07%

53.93%

Penarol Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66%

34%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.32%

70.68%

Score Analysis

Nacional 48.34%

Penarol 26.34%

Draw 25.32%

Nacional	Draw	Penarol
1-0 @ 11.16% 2-1 @ 9.37% 2-0 @ 8.68% 3-1 @ 4.86% 3-0 @ 4.5% 3-2 @ 2.62% 4-1 @ 1.89% 4-0 @ 1.75% 4-2 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.49% Total : 48.34%	1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 7.17% 2-2 @ 5.05% 3-3 @ 0.94% Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.32%	0-1 @ 7.74% 1-2 @ 6.5% 0-2 @ 4.18% 1-3 @ 2.34% 2-3 @ 1.82% 0-3 @ 1.5% Other @ 2.27% Total : 26.34%