Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 50.74%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Plaza Colonia had a probability of 22.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.13%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.32%), while for a Plaza Colonia win it was 0-1 (8.32%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.
