SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 41.71%. A win for Chelsea had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.94%). The likeliest Chelsea win was 0-1 (8.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Newcastle United | Draw | Chelsea |
41.71% ( -0.03) | 25.43% ( -0) | 32.86% ( 0.03) |
| Both teams to score 55.5% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.74% ( 0.01) | 48.26% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.59% ( 0.01) | 70.41% ( -0.01) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77% ( -0.01) | 23% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.19% ( -0.01) | 56.81% ( 0.01) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.08% ( 0.02) | 27.92% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.45% ( 0.03) | 63.55% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newcastle United | Draw | Chelsea |
| 1-0 @ 9.44% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( -0)2-0 @ 6.94% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.33% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.4% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.76% 4-1 @ 1.59% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.25% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.14% Total : 41.71% | 1-1 @ 12.04% 0-0 @ 6.42% ( -0)2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.18% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.43% | 0-1 @ 8.2% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.68% ( 0)0-2 @ 5.23% ( 0)1-3 @ 3.27% ( 0)2-3 @ 2.4% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.22% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.04% ( 0)Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.86% |
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