Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Portugal had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Portugal win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.
