SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 44.53%. A win for Red Star Belgrade had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.36%) and 0-2 (5.77%). The likeliest Red Star Belgrade win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Red Star Belgrade | Draw | Manchester City |
32.86% ( -2.69) | 22.6% ( 0.39) | 44.53% ( 2.31) |
| Both teams to score 65.7% ( -2.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.07% ( -2.8) | 34.92% ( 2.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.09% ( -3.19) | 56.9% ( 3.19) |
| Red Star Belgrade Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.47% ( -2.66) | 21.53% ( 2.66) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.4% ( -4.25) | 54.59% ( 4.25) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.72% ( -0.24) | 16.27% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.17% ( -0.43) | 45.82% ( 0.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Red Star Belgrade | Draw | Manchester City |
| 2-1 @ 7.5% ( -0.2) 1-0 @ 5.38% ( 0.34)2-0 @ 4.13% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 3.84% ( -0.44)3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.43)3-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 1.48% ( -0.31)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.29)Other @ 3.59% Total : 32.86% | 1-1 @ 9.77% ( 0.53) 2-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.24)0-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.48)3-3 @ 2.11% ( -0.28)Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.6% | 1-2 @ 8.87% ( 0.42) 0-1 @ 6.36% ( 0.82)0-2 @ 5.77% ( 0.71)1-3 @ 5.37% ( 0.21)2-3 @ 4.12% ( -0.18)0-3 @ 3.5% ( 0.4)1-4 @ 2.44% ( 0.08)2-4 @ 1.87% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.17)3-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.14)Other @ 3.69% Total : 44.53% |
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