Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spezia win with a probability of 38.23%. A win for Salernitana had a probability of 36.2% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spezia win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.44%) and 0-2 (6.25%). The likeliest Salernitana win was 1-0 (8.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spezia would win this match.
-0.07) 
0.08) 
