SM
| Team | Goals scored | Avg per game | Top scorer | |
| 1 | New Saints | 29 | 2.90 | Bradley |
| 2 | Pen-y-Bont | 23 | 1.77 | Pritchard |
| 3 | Caernarfon | 21 | 1.62 | Clarke |
| 4 | Barry | 19 | 1.46 | Hulbert |
| 5 | Newtown | 19 | 1.46 | Williams |
| 6 | Bala Town | 18 | 1.38 | Downes |
| 7 | Cardiff MU | 18 | 1.38 | Reynolds |
| 8 | Flint Town | 15 | 1.15 | Reeves |
| 9 | Haverfordwest | 15 | 1.15 | Ahmun |
| 10 | Connah's Quay | 14 | 1.17 | Hughes |
| 11 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 0.91 | Jenkins |
| 12 | Aberystwyth | 9 | 0.69 | Evans |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 67.94%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Astana had a probability of 13.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.8%), while for an Astana win it was 0-1 (3.97%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-0 win for The New Saints in this match.
| Result | ||
| The New Saints | Draw | Astana |
67.94% ( -2.63) | 18.65% ( 1.23) | 13.41% ( 1.41) |
| Both teams to score 51.86% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.66% ( -2.23) | 40.34% ( 2.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.28% ( -2.34) | 62.71% ( 2.33) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.11% ( -1.26) | 10.89% ( 1.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.97% ( -2.86) | 35.03% ( 2.86) |
| Astana Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.19% ( 0.76) | 41.81% ( -0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.73% ( 0.65) | 78.27% ( -0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| The New Saints | Draw | Astana |
| 2-0 @ 11.19% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 10.09% ( 0.5)2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 8.27% ( -0.48)3-1 @ 7.22% ( -0.26)4-0 @ 4.59% ( -0.54)4-1 @ 4% ( -0.38)3-2 @ 3.15% ( -0.05)5-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.36)5-1 @ 1.77% ( -0.27)4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.13)Other @ 4.13% Total : 67.94% | 1-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.61) 0-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.45)2-2 @ 4.26% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.12% Total : 18.65% | 0-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.47) 1-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.34)0-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.24)2-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.12)Other @ 1.52% Total : 13.41% |
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