SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 92.12%. A draw had a probability of 5.2% and a win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 2.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 4-0 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (7.49%) and 5-0 (7.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (1.95%), while for a Caernarfon Town win it was 1-2 (0.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.
| Result | ||
| The New Saints | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
92.12% ( -0.03) | 5.22% ( 0.02) | 2.66% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 56.23% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 89.5% ( -0.04) | 10.5% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 76.85% ( -0.07) | 23.14% ( 0.07) |
| The New Saints Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 98.78% ( -0.01) | 1.22% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 93.42% ( -0.03) | 6.58% ( 0.03) |
| Caernarfon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.92% ( -0) | 43.07% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.65% ( 0) | 79.35% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| The New Saints | Draw | Caernarfon Town |
| 4-0 @ 8.25% ( 0) 3-0 @ 7.49% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 7.28% ( -0)4-1 @ 6.95% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.31% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 6.13% ( -0)6-0 @ 5.35% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 5.09% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 4.51% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 4.29% ( 0.01)7-0 @ 3.37% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.93% ( 0)7-1 @ 2.84% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0)5-2 @ 2.58% ( -0)1-0 @ 2.31% ( 0.01)6-2 @ 1.9% ( -0)8-0 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)8-1 @ 1.56% ( -0.01)7-2 @ 1.2% ( -0)9-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 6.38% Total : 92.12% | 1-1 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.47% Total : 5.22% | Other @ 2.66% Total : 2.66% |
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