Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 50.35%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 26.11% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.2%) and 0-2 (8.04%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (6.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
