Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ural Yekaterinburg win with a probability of 36.38%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 35.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ural Yekaterinburg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 0-1 (11.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ural Yekaterinburg would win this match.
