SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uruguay win with a probability of 37.45%. A win for Panama had a probability of 34.39% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uruguay win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.88%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Panama win was 0-1 (11.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Uruguay would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Uruguay | Draw | Panama |
37.45% ( -0.4) | 28.16% ( 0.2) | 34.39% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 47.23% ( -0.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.09% ( -0.72) | 58.92% ( 0.72) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.6% ( -0.56) | 79.41% ( 0.57) |
| Uruguay Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.7% ( -0.6) | 30.3% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.52% ( -0.72) | 66.48% ( 0.72) |
| Panama Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.76% ( -0.23) | 32.24% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.27% ( -0.27) | 68.74% ( 0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| Uruguay | Draw | Panama |
| 1-0 @ 11.66% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.14% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.77% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.78% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 0.94% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.32% Total : 37.44% | 1-1 @ 13.2% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.27)2-2 @ 4.46% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.16% | 0-1 @ 11.05% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 7.47% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 6.26% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 2.82% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.74% Total : 34.38% |
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