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PL
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 21
Feb 10, 2024 at 8pm UK
Parc des Princes
L

PSG
3 - 1
Lille

Ramos (10'), Alexsandro (17' og.), Kolo (80')
Ugarte (35'), Mukiele (74')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Yazici (6')
Andre (16'), Ismaily (32'), Fonseca (40'), Alexsandro (52')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: PSG 3-1 Brest
Wednesday, February 7 at 8.10pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lyon 2-1 Lille
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France

We said: Paris Saint-Germain 2-1 Lille

While Lille have looked incredibly compact defensively, the PSG attack is on a roll and not only relying on Mbappe to score, and therefore, we doubt the visitors will be able to hold them off for 90 minutes. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 52.63%. A win for Lille had a probability of 24.03% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.75%) and 2-0 (8.67%). The likeliest Lille win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.

Result
Paris Saint-GermainDrawLille
52.63% (0.447 0.45) 23.34% (-0.052 -0.05) 24.03% (-0.398 -0.4)
Both teams to score 56.12% (-0.279 -0.28)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.46% (-0.159 -0.16)44.54% (0.156 0.16)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.09% (-0.156 -0.16)66.9% (0.15100000000001 0.15)
Paris Saint-Germain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.08% (0.10300000000001 0.1)16.91% (-0.107 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.02% (0.182 0.18)46.97% (-0.187 -0.19)
Lille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.55% (-0.422 -0.42)32.45% (0.418 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
31.03% (-0.477 -0.48)68.97% (0.47199999999999 0.47)
Score Analysis
    Paris Saint-Germain 52.63%
    Lille 24.03%
    Draw 23.33%
Paris Saint-GermainDrawLille
2-1 @ 9.75% (0.022 0.02)
1-0 @ 9.75% (0.1 0.1)
2-0 @ 8.67% (0.118 0.12)
3-1 @ 5.78% (0.033 0.03)
3-0 @ 5.13% (0.088 0.09)
3-2 @ 3.25% (-0.019 -0.02)
4-1 @ 2.57% (0.024 0.02)
4-0 @ 2.28% (0.046 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.44% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 0.91% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 3.09%
Total : 52.63%
1-1 @ 10.97% (-0.02 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.49% (-0.051 -0.05)
0-0 @ 5.49% (0.037000000000001 0.04)
3-3 @ 1.22% (-0.021 -0.02)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 23.33%
1-2 @ 6.18% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-1 @ 6.18% (-0.029000000000001 -0.03)
0-2 @ 3.48% (-0.057 -0.06)
1-3 @ 2.32% (-0.056 -0.06)
2-3 @ 2.06% (-0.043 -0.04)
0-3 @ 1.3% (-0.037 -0.04)
Other @ 2.52%
Total : 24.03%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: PSG 3-1 Brest
Wednesday, February 7 at 8.10pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Strasbourg 1-2 PSG
Friday, February 2 at 8pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: PSG 2-2 Brest
Sunday, January 28 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Orleans 1-4 PSG
Saturday, January 20 at 7.45pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lens 0-2 PSG
Sunday, January 14 at 7.45pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Revel 0-9 PSG
Sunday, January 7 at 7.45pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lyon 2-1 Lille
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lille 4-0 Clermont
Sunday, February 4 at 2pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Montpellier 0-0 Lille
Sunday, January 28 at 12pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Racing Colombes 92 0-1 Lille
Sunday, January 21 at 4.30pm in Coupe de France
Last Game: Lille 3-0 Lorient
Sunday, January 14 at 12pm in Ligue 1
Last Game: Lille 12-0 Golden Lion
Saturday, January 6 at 2.30pm in Coupe de France


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