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Major League Soccer
May 5, 2024 at 12.30am UK
Inter Miami CF Stadium
NY

Inter Miami
6 - 2
NY Red Bulls

Rojas (48', 62'), Messi (50'), Suarez (68', 75', 81')
Aviles (57')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Vanzeir (30'), Forsberg (90+7' pen.)
Tolkin (25'), Duncan (38'), Carmona (39')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-1 Vancouver
Sunday, April 28 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Inter Miami 4-2 New York Red Bulls

The Red Bulls embarrassed Miami when they squared off in March, and that will likely be in the back of the minds of the Herons when they take the field on Saturday, and we believe that added motivation will power Messi and company to another big victory. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Miami win with a probability of 55.55%. A win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 22.73% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Miami win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.28%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest New York Red Bulls win was 1-2 (5.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 6-2 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Miami would win this match.

Result
Inter MiamiDrawNew York Red Bulls
55.55% (5.172 5.17) 21.72% (-1.955 -1.96) 22.73% (-3.217 -3.22)
Both teams to score 60.1% (3.07 3.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
61.46% (5.743 5.74)38.53% (-5.743 -5.74)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
39.17% (5.823 5.82)60.83% (-5.824 -5.82)
Inter Miami Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.17% (3.825 3.83)13.83% (-3.826 -3.83)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.81% (7.082 7.08)41.18% (-7.082 -7.08)
New York Red Bulls Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.74% (0.488 0.49)30.25% (-0.489 -0.49)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.57% (0.581 0.58)66.42% (-0.58199999999999 -0.58)
Score Analysis
    Inter Miami 55.55%
    New York Red Bulls 22.73%
    Draw 21.72%
Inter MiamiDrawNew York Red Bulls
2-1 @ 9.79% (0.162 0.16)
1-0 @ 8.28% (-1.135 -1.14)
2-0 @ 8.19% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
3-1 @ 6.46% (0.891 0.89)
3-0 @ 5.4% (0.682 0.68)
3-2 @ 3.86% (0.577 0.58)
4-1 @ 3.19% (0.78 0.78)
4-0 @ 2.67% (0.625 0.63)
4-2 @ 1.91% (0.486 0.49)
5-1 @ 1.26% (0.427 0.43)
5-0 @ 1.06% (0.347 0.35)
Other @ 3.48%
Total : 55.55%
1-1 @ 9.9% (-1.205 -1.21)
2-2 @ 5.85% (0.175 0.18)
0-0 @ 4.18% (-1.244 -1.24)
3-3 @ 1.54% (0.248 0.25)
Other @ 0.25%
Total : 21.72%
1-2 @ 5.92% (-0.632 -0.63)
0-1 @ 5% (-1.4 -1.4)
0-2 @ 2.99% (-0.785 -0.79)
1-3 @ 2.36% (-0.217 -0.22)
2-3 @ 2.33% (0.1 0.1)
0-3 @ 1.19% (-0.293 -0.29)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 22.73%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: New England 1-4 Inter Miami
Sunday, April 28 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Inter Miami 3-1 Nashville
Sunday, April 21 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Kansas 2-3 Inter Miami
Sunday, April 14 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Monterrey 3-1 Inter Miami
Thursday, April 11 at 3.30am in CONCACAF Champions League
Last Game: Inter Miami 2-2 Colorado
Sunday, April 7 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Inter Miami 1-2 Monterrey
Thursday, April 4 at 1am in CONCACAF Champions League
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-1 Vancouver
Sunday, April 28 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Los Angeles 2-2 NY Red Bulls
Sunday, April 21 at 3.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 0-0 Chicago Fire
Sunday, April 14 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Cincinnati 1-2 NY Red Bulls
Sunday, April 7 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Orlando City 1-1 NY Red Bulls
Saturday, March 30 at 11.30pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: NY Red Bulls 4-0 Inter Miami
Saturday, March 23 at 6pm in Major League Soccer


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