SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Lithuania win with a probability of 40.1%. A win for Belarus has a probability of 31.33% and a draw has a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lithuania win is 0-1 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Belarus win is 1-0 (10.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.25%).
| Result | ||
| Belarus | Draw | Lithuania |
31.33% ( -9.62) | 28.57% ( -1.15) | 40.1% ( 10.76) |
| Both teams to score 45.43% ( 3.7) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.16% ( 4.2) | 60.83% ( -4.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.13% ( 3.05) | 80.87% ( -3.05) |
| Belarus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.6% ( -4.1) | 35.39% ( 4.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.84% ( -4.51) | 72.15% ( 4.5) |
| Lithuania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.32% ( 9.57) | 29.67% ( -9.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.27% ( 10.23) | 65.72% ( -10.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Belarus | Draw | Lithuania |
| 1-0 @ 10.9% ( -3.36) 2-1 @ 6.88% ( -0.87)2-0 @ 5.67% ( -2.62)3-1 @ 2.38% ( -0.62)3-0 @ 1.96% ( -1.25)3-2 @ 1.45% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.08% Total : 31.32% | 1-1 @ 13.25% ( -0.09) 0-0 @ 10.5% ( -1.78)2-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.56)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.57% | 0-1 @ 12.75% ( 1.27) 1-2 @ 8.05% ( 1.81)0-2 @ 7.75% ( 2.38)1-3 @ 3.26% ( 1.32)0-3 @ 3.14% ( 1.46)2-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.56)1-4 @ 0.99% ( 0.54)0-4 @ 0.95% ( 0.56)Other @ 1.5% Total : 40.09% |
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