SM
| Current League A2 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 6 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Italy | 6 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Belgium | 6 | -3 | 4 |
| 4 | Israel | 6 | -8 | 4 |
| Current League A3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Germany | 6 | 14 | 14 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 3 | Hungary | 6 | -7 | 6 |
| 4 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 6 | -13 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 41.56%. A win for Germany had a probability of 34.78% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.2%) and 2-0 (5.91%). The likeliest Germany win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Germany |
41.56% ( -0.18) | 23.66% ( 0.01) | 34.78% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 62.36% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.45% ( 0.03) | 39.55% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.1% ( 0.03) | 61.89% ( -0.03) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.63% ( -0.07) | 19.36% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.84% ( -0.12) | 51.15% ( 0.12) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.34% ( 0.11) | 22.66% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.7% ( 0.16) | 56.3% ( -0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | Germany |
| 2-1 @ 8.78% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 4.8% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.57% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.24% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.46% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.33% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 41.56% | 1-1 @ 10.69% 2-2 @ 6.52% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.39% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.77% ( 0)Other @ 0.3% Total : 23.66% | 1-2 @ 7.94% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 6.51% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.93% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)1-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.2% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.29% Total : 34.78% |
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