Villa have not beaten Burnley at Villa Park since October 2010, but the home side have shown excellent form under Gerrard, and we are expecting a Villa victory on Saturday afternoon, albeit by a close scoreline. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 49.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 24.75%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%), while for a Burnley win it was 0-1 (7.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.

Result
Aston Villa	Draw	Burnley
49.62% ( 0.02)	25.63% ( -0.01)	24.75% ( -0.01)

Both teams to score 49.71% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.63% (

0.02)

53.37% (

-0.02)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

25.09% (

0.02)

74.91% (

-0.01)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.47% (

0.02)

21.53% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.4% (

0.02)

54.6% (

-0.02)

Burnley Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.35%

36.65% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.56% (

-0)

73.43% (

Score Analysis

Aston Villa 49.61%

Burnley 24.75%

Draw 25.62%

Aston Villa	Draw	Burnley
1-0 @ 12.11% 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.3% ( 0) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.76% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.4% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.84% ( 0) 4-0 @ 1.83% ( 0) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.33% Total : 49.61%	1-1 @ 12.16% 0-0 @ 7.89% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.69% ( 0) Other @ 0.89% Total : 25.62%	0-1 @ 7.92% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.11% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.98% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.04% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.33% ( -0) Other @ 1.81% Total : 24.75%