Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 70.22%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 13.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 0-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-3 (7.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.51%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 2-1 (3.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
