We said: Burnley 1-0 Newcastle United
At any other stage of the season it might be difficult to back a Burnley win here, but the result is so much more important to the hosts than it is to Newcastle, and that could make the difference in a game of fine margins.
Burnley are also in good form at home, whereas Newcastle's away form has been poor of late, so we are backing the home side to pick up the win they need to stay in the Premier League for another season.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burnley win with a probability of 43.47%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 30.98% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burnley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (7.42%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.