SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 59.75%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 21.1% and a draw had a probability of 19.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.23%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 1-2 (5.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.76%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
59.75% ( 0.51) | 19.15% ( -0.06) | 21.1% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 67.37% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.88% ( -0.34) | 28.12% ( 0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 51.12% ( -0.42) | 48.88% ( 0.42) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.6% ( 0.02) | 9.4% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.37% ( 0.05) | 31.63% ( -0.04) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.37% ( -0.56) | 25.63% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.47% ( -0.77) | 60.53% ( 0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 7.23% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.15)1-0 @ 5.7% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 5.31% ( 0.12)3-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.05)4-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 2.91% ( -0.03)5-1 @ 2.02% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.01)4-3 @ 1.32% ( -0.03)Other @ 4.19% Total : 59.75% | 1-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.51% Total : 19.15% | 1-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 3.28% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.83% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 2.23% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.01% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 0.96% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.1% Total : 21.1% |
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