Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 67.25%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 14.64%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 1-0 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.25%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (4.15%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
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