Although West Ham had their confidence hammered again on Boxing Day, their hosts have not kept a clean sheet all season and are not about to start now, given some inevitable rustiness after a fortnight in cold storage.
Injuries have limited the Irons' effectiveness in recent weeks, but they should still have enough threat to edge a team which has such a soft underbelly - particularly if Antonio is closer to full fitness and back in form inside the box.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a West Ham United win with a probability of 55.61%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Watford had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a West Ham United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.83%) and 0-2 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.02%), while for a Watford win it was 1-0 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that West Ham United would win this match.
