Needing a win to keep their survival hopes alive, we expect Belenenses to come out with guns blazing on Monday and take the game to the visitors. Famalicao's struggles for results on the road make the hosts slight favourites and we predict O Belem will take the positives from their defeat to Braga and grind out the win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 44.54%. A win for Belenenses had a probability of 29.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.98%) and 0-2 (8.06%). The likeliest Belenenses win was 1-0 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
2.46) 
-2.65) 
