Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.11%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 12.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (13.19%) and 1-2 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.35%), while for a Nacional win it was 1-0 (4.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
