Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 40.41%. A win for Dynamo Moscow had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.63%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Dynamo Moscow win was 0-1 (8.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.43%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood.