SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al-Nassr win with a probability of 54.82%. A win for Al Shabab had a probability of 23.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Al-Nassr win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.56%) and 0-1 (7.46%). The likeliest Al Shabab win was 2-1 (6.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 4.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Al-Nassr would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Al Shabab | Draw | Al-Nassr |
23.76% ( -0.4) | 21.42% ( -0.05) | 54.82% ( 0.45) |
| Both teams to score 62.55% ( -0.32) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.09% ( -0.2) | 35.9% ( 0.2) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42% ( -0.22) | 57.99% ( 0.22) |
| Al Shabab Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.04% ( -0.42) | 27.95% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.41% ( -0.54) | 63.58% ( 0.54) |
| Al-Nassr Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.83% ( 0.07) | 13.17% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.13% ( 0.13) | 39.87% ( -0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Al Shabab | Draw | Al-Nassr |
| 2-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.07) 1-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 2.99% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.61% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 2.58% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.56% Total : 23.76% | 1-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 3.68% ( 0.04)3-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.32% Total : 21.42% | 1-2 @ 9.64% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 7.56% ( 0.11)0-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 6.52% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 5.11% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 4.15% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 3.3% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.59% ( 0.05)2-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.01)1-5 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)0-5 @ 1.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.98% Total : 54.82% |
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