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Scottish Cup | Fifth Round
Feb 10, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
The Smisa Stadium
HL

St Mirren
1 - 1
Hearts

Hearts win 4-2 on penalties
Mandron (22')
Gogic (90+10'), Smyth (120+1'), Fraser (127')
FT
(aet)

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: St Mirren 0-1 St Johnstone
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Dundee 0-6 Hearts
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership

We say: St Mirren 0-2 Hearts

We cannot look past the visitors in this match due to their fine form in recent weeks - they have been scoring goals for fun lately and we expect that trend to continue here. Despite St Mirren getting the better of Hearts in their home league fixture earlier in the season, the visitors look a much better outfit now, so they should get through this tie relatively comfortably. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hearts win with a probability of 47.51%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for St Mirren had a probability of 26.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Hearts win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (9.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a St Mirren win it was 1-0 (8.55%).

Result
St MirrenDrawHearts
26.13% (-0.334 -0.33) 26.36% (0.238 0.24) 47.51% (0.094000000000001 0.09)
Both teams to score 48.78% (-0.967 -0.97)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.81% (-1.125 -1.13)55.19% (1.123 1.12)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.57% (-0.934 -0.93)76.43% (0.932 0.93)
St Mirren Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.55% (-0.894 -0.89)36.45% (0.892 0.89)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.76% (-0.915 -0.91)73.24% (0.911 0.91)
Hearts Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.76% (-0.43900000000001 -0.44)23.24% (0.435 0.43)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.85% (-0.643 -0.64)57.15% (0.64 0.64)
Score Analysis
    St Mirren 26.13%
    Hearts 47.51%
    Draw 26.36%
St MirrenDrawHearts
1-0 @ 8.55% (0.165 0.16)
2-1 @ 6.3% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-0 @ 4.31% (-0.021 -0.02)
3-1 @ 2.12% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.55% (-0.087 -0.09)
3-0 @ 1.45% (-0.043 -0.04)
Other @ 1.85%
Total : 26.13%
1-1 @ 12.47% (0.08 0.08)
0-0 @ 8.47% (0.362 0.36)
2-2 @ 4.59% (-0.143 -0.14)
Other @ 0.83%
Total : 26.36%
0-1 @ 12.36% (0.38 0.38)
1-2 @ 9.1% (-0.058 -0.06)
0-2 @ 9.02% (0.16 0.16)
1-3 @ 4.43% (-0.086 -0.09)
0-3 @ 4.39% (0.021999999999999 0.02)
2-3 @ 2.24% (-0.099 -0.1)
1-4 @ 1.62% (-0.052 -0.05)
0-4 @ 1.6% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 47.51%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: St Mirren 0-1 St Johnstone
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Aberdeen 0-3 St Mirren
Saturday, January 25 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: QotS 1-3 St Mirren
Saturday, January 18 at 3pm in Scottish Cup
Last Game: St Mirren 0-1 Dundee Utd
Saturday, January 11 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Celtic 3-0 St Mirren
Sunday, January 5 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Kilmarnock 2-0 St Mirren
Thursday, January 2 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Dundee 0-6 Hearts
Saturday, February 1 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Hearts 3-2 Kilmarnock
Saturday, January 25 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Brechin 1-4 Hearts
Friday, January 17 at 7.45pm in Scottish Cup
Last Game: Aberdeen 0-0 Hearts
Sunday, January 12 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Dundee Utd 0-1 Hearts
Sunday, January 5 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership
Last Game: Hearts 1-0 Motherwell
Thursday, January 2 at 3pm in Scottish Premiership


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