Burgos have had a brilliant campaign and have also been excellent at home, so this is a tough match for Girona. It would not be a surprise to see the points shared on Sunday night, but the visitors have a lot of quality in the forward areas, and we are backing them to secure a narrow victory to earn a playoff spot.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burgos win with a probability of 38.92%. A win for Girona had a probability of 33.47% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burgos win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Girona win was 0-1 (10.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.05) 
