Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monza win with a probability of 63.11%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 15.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monza win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.35%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.01%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monza would win this match.
